Thursday, October 8, 2009

Afghanistan and the United States - The unwinnable war?

In October 7th 2001, two key military operations were launched. While the actual operations are regarded by many as the War in Afghanistan, the purpose of the "invasion" is actually a little more complex.

The United States launched Operation Enduring Freedom, and the British executed Operation Herrick. These were essentially in response to the September 11 attacks in 2001 in which nearly 3,000 lives were lost.

The other major miltary operation is the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) established by the UN Security Council late 2001. Essentially their mission is more of a securement focus, and represents over 60,000 military personal. NATO members provide the bulk of the force, with the US contingent numbering close to half the troops.

However, the war itself is not so much on Afghanistan, as much as it is against both Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.  Actions were being undertaken and strategies in place far before the above military operations were launched.

Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda have always had a loose alliance or treaty with the Taliban, and after the 1998 US embassy bombings, the Americans had launched pre-emptive and restrictive missile and bombing strikes on the Taliban camps.

Essentially, that is the primary aim of this invasion, to find Bin Laden, destroy Al-Qaeda, and essentially remove the Taliban, who were (are) giving haven to the terrorists.

It was official US policy under George Bush that it there was no distinction between either terrorists nor nations or governments that harbored them.

The timeline leading to the Afghan invasion was clear.

On September 20th, 2001, Bush delivered an ultimatum to the Taliban government of Afghanistan demanding numerous actions, including the deliverance of Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda authorities, closure of terrorist camps, and so forth.

"They will hand over the terrorists or they will share in their fate" said Bush. "Our war on terror begins with al Qaeda, but it does not end there."

The Taliban responded claiming there was no evidence that linked Bin Laden to the September 11 attacks (although he did essentially claim responsibility) but did make it plain that Bin Laden was a guest in their country, and that codes of behaviour (under Pashtun law) required that such guests be granted full asylum.

All countries, with the exception of Pakistan, effectively severed all ties recognising the Taliban as any form of legal government within days of the announcement.

On October 7th, 2001, the Taliban did offer Bin Laden, but only to an Islamic court in Afghanistan. The US rejected this offer and commenced hostilities the same day.

A week later the Taliban offered Bin Laden to a "neutral" country for trial, but only if bombing and attacks halted and evidence was offered as to Al-Qaeda's guilt.

U.S. President Bush declared "There's no need to discuss innocence or guilt. We know he's guilty."

While the United Nations did not authorise the campaign, effectively many viewed this as a moot point, as the invasion was considered an act of self-defence, under Article 51 of the United Nations charter.

The US did not declare war, but labelled Taliban terrorists and not soldiers, denying them protections of law and of the Geneva Convention. This stance has been backed by the US Supreme Court.

So far over 1,400 coalition troops have been killed, over 5,000 Afghan security forces and over 100 civilian contractors.

Over 22,000 insurgents (the Taliban) are reported dead.

But after eight years, how long can this go on?

The news appears to be getting worse in Afghanistan, and it now appears that a surge may be implemented into the war theatre, with some US commanders looking at the addition of up to 60,000 troops.

There is real fear now that this war may be unwinnable, with recent attacks in Pakistan showing that the Taliban are adapting.  The words unbeatable are probably a bit rich, considering that they are waging war with the most powerful and well funded military machine the world has ever seen.

But as Iraq showed (and Vietnam before it) while the United States prides itself on its ability to adapt to any enemy, any terrain - sometimes they can be slow learners.

And often as history has shown, it is near impossible to remove a native people from their land.

The Afghan elections were seen by many as a giant farce, and corruption is rife, while the poppy trade; one of the biggest economical earners in the country, is thriving.

Numerous polls of late, namely by CNN and Fox, has shown that support for the war amongst Americans is waning, but Obama and other world leaders have stressed that this war is crucial. 

Perhaps ironic that the war's biggest advocate is the latest peace prize winner?

But Obama is ready to answer tough questions regarding the region.

"Many people in the United States -- and many in partner countries that have sacrificed so much -- have a simple question: What is our purpose in Afghanistan?" the president said.


"After so many years, they ask, why do our men and women still fight and die there? And they deserve a straightforward answer.  So let me be clear: Al Qaeda and its allies -- the terrorists who planned and supported the 9/11 attacks -- are in Pakistan and Afghanistan."

"Multiple intelligence estimates have warned that al Qaeda is actively planning attacks on the United States homeland from its safe haven in Pakistan. And if the Afghan government falls to the Taliban -- or allows al Qaeda to go unchallenged -- that country will again be a base for terrorists who want to kill as many of our people as they possibly can."

The reality now, is that this war must be won.  For in essence, failure to achieve the result, even if that remains clouded, would be a victory far beyond any terrorist bomb or suicide attack.

What has made this war a bit more colluded is the fact that Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal, and the entire region now is at risk due to the instability with the Afghan insurgency.

Still, it is a war that is not without it's associated conspiracies, in a world where it now seems impossible for a war not to be fought, on one front or another.  Perhaps the question should be asked is what are the military forces of democracy going to do with no Iraq or Afghanistan to hold their attention?

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